IST Austria Thesis

Because of the increasing popularity of machine learning methods, it is becoming important to understand the impact of learned components on automated decision-making systems and to guarantee that their consequences are beneficial to society. In other words, it is necessary to ensure that machine learning is sufficiently trustworthy to be used in real-world applications. This thesis studies two properties of machine learning models that are highly desirable for the sake of reliability: robustness and fairness. In the first part of the thesis we study the robustness of learning algorithms to training data corruption. Previous work has shown that machine learning models are vulnerable to a range of training set issues, varying from label noise through systematic biases to worst-case data manipulations. This is an especially relevant problem from a present perspective, since modern machine learning methods are particularly data hungry and therefore practitioners often have to rely on data collected from various external sources, e.g. from the Internet, from app users or via crowdsourcing. Naturally, such sources vary greatly in the quality and reliability of the data they provide. With these considerations in mind, we study the problem of designing machine learning algorithms that are robust to corruptions in data coming from multiple sources. We show that, in contrast to the case of a single dataset with outliers, successful learning within this model is possible both theoretically and practically, even under worst-case data corruptions. The second part of this thesis deals with fairness-aware machine learning. There are multiple areas where machine learning models have shown promising results, but where careful considerations are required, in order to avoid discrimanative decisions taken by such learned components. Ensuring fairness can be particularly challenging, because real-world training datasets are expected to contain various forms of historical bias that may affect the learning process. In this thesis we show that data corruption can indeed render the problem of achieving fairness impossible, by tightly characterizing the theoretical limits of fair learning under worst-case data manipulations. However, assuming access to clean data, we also show how fairness-aware learning can be made practical in contexts beyond binary classification, in particular in the challenging learning to rank setting

Fairness-aware PAC learning from corrupted data

Addressing fairness concerns about machine learning models is a crucial step towards their long-term adoption in real-world automated systems. While many approaches have been developed for training fair models from data, little is known about the robustness of these methods to data corruption. In this work we consider fairness-aware learning under worst-case data manipulations. We show that an adversary can in some situations force any learner to return an overly biased classifier, regardless of the sample size and with or without degrading accuracy, and that the strength of the excess bias increases for learning problems with underrepresented protected groups in the data. We also prove that our hardness results are tight up to constant factors. To this end, we study two natural learning algorithms that optimize for both accuracy and fairness and show that these algorithms enjoy guarantees that are order-optimal in terms of the corruption ratio and the protected groups frequencies in the large data limit

FLEA: Provably Fair Multisource Learning from Unreliable Training Data

Fairness-aware learning aims at constructing classifiers that not only make accurate predictions, but do not discriminate against specific groups. It is a fast-growing area of machine learning with far-reaching societal impact. However, existing fair learning methods are vulnerable to accidental or malicious artifacts in the training data, which can cause them to unknowingly produce unfair classifiers. In this work we address the problem of fair learning from unreliable training data in the robust multisource setting, where the available training data comes from multiple sources, a fraction of which might be not representative of the true data distribution. We introduce FLEA, a filtering-based algorithm that allows the learning system to identify and suppress those data sources that would have a negative impact on fairness or accuracy if they were used for training. We show the effectiveness of our approach by a diverse range of experiments on multiple datasets. Additionally we prove formally that, given enough data, FLEA protects the learner against unreliable data as long as the fraction of affected data sources is less than half

On the Sample Complexity of Adversarial Multi-Source PAC Learning

We study the problem of learning from multiple untrusted data sources, a scenario of increasing practical relevance given the recent emergence of crowdsourcing and collaborative learning paradigms. Specifically, we analyze the situation in which a learning system obtains datasets from multiple sources, some of which might be biased or even adversarially perturbed. It is known that in the single-source case, an adversary with the power to corrupt a fixed fraction of the training data can prevent PAC-learnability, that is, even in the limit of infinitely much training data, no learning system can approach the optimal test error. In this work we show that, surprisingly, the same is not true in the multi-source setting, where the adversary can arbitrarily corrupt a fixed fraction of the data sources. Our main results are a generalization bound that provides finite-sample guarantees for this learning setting, as well as corresponding lower bounds. Besides establishing PAC-learnability our results also show that in a cooperative learning setting sharing data with other parties has provable benefits, even if some participants are malicious.Comment: International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 2020: Camera-ready. Strengthened the definition of adversarial PAC-learnability, added explicit bounds on sample complexit

On the sample complexity of adversarial multi-source PAC learning

We study the problem of learning from multiple untrusted data sources, a scenario of increasing practical relevance given the recent emergence of crowdsourcing and collaborative learning paradigms. Specifically, we analyze the situation in which a learning system obtains datasets from multiple sources, some of which might be biased or even adversarially perturbed. It is known that in the single-source case, an adversary with the power to corrupt a fixed fraction of the training data can prevent PAC-learnability, that is, even in the limit of infinitely much training data, no learning system can approach the optimal test error. In this work we show that, surprisingly, the same is not true in the multi-source setting, where the adversary can arbitrarily corrupt a fixed fraction of the data sources. Our main results are a generalization bound that provides finite-sample guarantees for this learning setting, as well as corresponding lower bounds. Besides establishing PAC-learnability our results also show that in a cooperative learning setting sharing data with other parties has provable benefits, even if some participants are malicious

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe